CarlyWill Sloan

publications

The Effect of Risk Assessment Scores on Judicial Behavior and Defendant Outcomes with George Naufal and Heather Caspers (updated version) accepted at Journal of Human Resources

Risk assessment has been increasingly adopted in an effort to reduce pretrial detention for poor, low-risk defendants. This paper examines the impact of risk assessment using administrative data from a large Texas County. We identify effects using a regression discontinuity that exploits the overnight implementation of a risk assessment policy. Results indicate this led to a 6.5 percent increase in nonfinancial bond and an 8.5 percent decrease in pretrial detention, though neither effect persisted beyond two months. Additionally, the policy did not increase violent pretrial crime, though there is some suggestive evidence of increases in nonviolent pretrial crime.

Can Text Messages Reduce Incarceration in Rural and Vulnerable Populations? with Emily Owens Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 2023 (gated version)

Reducing failures to appear (FTA) in court is a top priority for criminal justice practitioners and advocates. However, existing work on reducing FTAs through text message reminders focuses on large urban jurisdictions and defendants who are housed. Using a field study in Shasta County, California, we evaluate whether text message outreach can increase court appearances for housed and unhoused populations. We find housed defendants randomly assigned to the treatment group were 10% less likely to miss their next scheduled court date than defendants in the control group. We find no statistical difference in the FTA rate of unhoused individuals assigned to treatment or control groups, and cannot rule out large positive or negative effects. We find that improving the quality of contact information in court records could lead to large reductions in FTAs. Partnering with local social service providers may not, but more research is needed.

Does Race Matter for Police Use of Force? Evidence from 911 Calls with Mark Hoekstra American Economic Review, 2022 (gated version, ungated) podcast

This paper examines race and police use of force using data on 1.6 million 911 calls in two cities, neither of which allows for discretion in officer dispatch. Results indicate white officers increase force much more than minority officers when dispatched to more minority neighborhoods. Estimates indicate black (Hispanic) civilians are 55 (75) percent more likely to experience any force, and five times as likely to experience a police shooting, compared to if white officers scaled up force similarly to minority officers. Additionally, 14 percent of white officers use excess force in black neighborhoods relative to our statistical benchmark.

Minimum Wage and Search Effort with Camilla Adams and Jonathan Meer (gated version, CATO brief) Economic Letters, 2022

Labor market search-and-matching models posit supply-side responses to minimum wage increases that may lead to improved matches and lessen or even reverse negative employment effects. Using event study analysis of recent minimum wage increases, we find that these changes do not affect the likelihood of searching, but do lead to transitory spikes in search effort by individuals already looking for work. These results are not driven by changes in the composition of searchers, and are concentrated among the groups most likely to be impacted by the minimum wage and in response to larger minimum wage increases.

Entrepreneurship and crime: The case of new restaurant location decisions with Steven Caudill and Franklin Mixon Journal of Business Venturing Insights, 2016(gated version)

This paper examines the impact of various violent crimes on restaurant location decisions in a single city, Memphis, TN. Using location information on crimes and newly opened restaurants, we are able to match crimes and restaurants in parcels we construct. We examine the impact of the number of burglaries, assaults, rapes, and murders in each of 400 to up to 1,000,000 parcels occurring from 2009–2013 on the number of restaurants opening in 2014 in models including dummy variables capturing neighborhood effects. Regression results indicate that each crime is positively related to the number of new restaurants in a parcel. This suggests that even with the crime problem, these locations provide sufficient benefits, perhaps population density, which make them attractive to restaurant entrepreneurs.

working papers

The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force with Chandon Adger and Matt Ross click here! R&R American Economic Review

The influence of on-the-job training and supervisors, especially in high-stakes settings like policing, is poorly understood. Examining a central behavior in the debate surrounding police reform, we investigate the impact of a field training officer (FTO) on a recruit’s use of force. Leveraging a setting with conditional as-good-as-random assignment, we demonstrate a causal link between FTO and recruit use of force. A one standard deviation increase in FTO force propensity leads to a 14 to 18 percent rise in recruit force, persisting for at least two years. This underscores field training’s impact and reveals a promising avenue for reform.

More with Less: The Impact of Mandatory Overtime on Police Wellness and Productivity with Katie Bollman, Ariel Gomez, and Matt Ross click here!

We investigate the impact of managing labor shortages through mandatory overtime on police officer productivity in Chicago. Using daily officer-level data, we leverage cross-sectional variation in officer assignment to overtime in a stacked difference-in-differences design. Our results suggest there was a limited downside to the mandatory overtime policy: it successfully increased average involuntary overtime hours without inducing absences and had little effect on enforcement outcomes.

Do Prosecutor and Defendant Race Pairings Matter? Evidence from Random Assignment click here!

Racial disparities in criminal justice outcomes are well-documented. However, there is little evidence on whether the pairing of prosecutors and defendants is responsible for these disparities. This paper tests for cross-race effects in convictions by prosecutors. To identify effects, I leverage conditional as-good-as random variation in prosecutor race using detailed administrative data on the case assignment process and case outcomes in New York County. I show that the assignment of a cross-race prosecutor leads to a 5 percentage point (9 percent) increase in convictions for property crimes and no strong evidence of effects for other types of crimes.

works in progress

How Much Does Your Prosecutor Matter? An Estimate of Prosecutorial Discretion click here!

Many argue that prosecutors wield more discretion and power than any other agent in the criminal justice system. Despite this widespread belief, little work has documented the extent of prosecutorial discretion. Using data that tracks cases from arrest through disposition, this paper exploits the conditionally random assignment of cases to prosecutors. To quantify prosecutorial discretion, I use a random effects model to estimate prosecutor-specific measures of leniency. Results show that prosecutors are important for case disposition. Replacing a prosecutor with one who is a standard deviation harsher increases the odds of a guilty outcome by 3 percentage points, or 5 percent. This magnitude is similar to the average difference in guilty outcomes between Black and White defendants, or half the effect of a prior arrest. Additional results indicate that prosecutor race and gender are not primary determinants of leniency. However, prosecutors are willing or able to exercise significant discretion for defendants with no prior arrests and less severe crimes.

Pilot Program to Reduce Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Motor Vehicle Enforcement Actions with Matt Ross press release here!

teaching

I have served as the instructor of record for nine courses at both the undergraduate and graduate levels and currently lead the Thesis Program at the United States Military Academy at West Point:

United States Military Academy at West Point: Research Methods (Spring 2024, 2025), Public Economics (Fall 2023), Principles of Economics (Fall 2022, Spring 2023, Fall 2024).
Claremont Graduate University: Professional Development (Spring 2022), Economics of Discrimination (Spring 2022), Labor Supply (Fall 2021), Game Theory (Spring 2021), Economics of Crime (Fall 2020).
Texas A&M University: Intermediate Microeconomic Theory (Summer 2018).

LIFE

My first name: it’s a double name! I am named after two of my great-grandfathers (Carl+Will)
Free time activities: yoga, coffee, and going outside